Not established in North America, including the Great Lakes. Chelicorophium curvispinum has a moderate probability of establishment if introduced to the Great Lakes (Confidence level: High).
This species has been one of the most successful macroinvertebrate invaders in Europe, establishing populations much larger than those of any native invertebrate species within a few years of colonization (den Hartog et al. 1992; van den Brink et al. 1993; Bij de Vaate et al. 2002). Densities have reached 750,000 individuals/m2 in some areas of the Rhine (van den Brink et al. 1993). With a high fecundity (see Ecology), reproducing populations are now established throughout all major European river systems and as far west as Great Britain (Bij de Vaate et al. 2002). This species is able to readily disperse through ballast water transport, ship hull fouling, passive drift, and active migration (van der Velde et al. 2000; van Riel et al. 2006), with secondary spread across Europe occurring in a pattern similar to, though at a much slower rate than, that of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) (Tittizer et al. 1994).
Chelicorophium curvispinum is a non-specific feeder (Bij de Vaate et al. 2002), filtering diatoms, organic particles, and small minerals from the water column. Its superior competitive abilities—including spatial adaptation, gregarious behavior, and relatively short lifespan and generation time—have contributed to this species’ invasion success (van den Brink et al. 1993; Bij de Vaate et al. 2002). Competition with other macroinvertebrate species has been well documented, most notably with the highly successful Great Lakes invader, the zebra mussel. However, it is heavily consumed by the Ponto-Capsian amphipod Dikerogammarus villosus (another predicted Great Lakes invader) in invaded habitat. Thus, the establishment of C. curvispinum in the Great Lakes may be restricted by the co-invasion of D. villosus (Bovy et al. 2015; Barrios-O'Neill et al. 2015).
The water temperature (up to 31.8°C) and salinity (<6 ppt) ranges tolerated by C. curvispinum are well within those of the Great Lakes and have allowed this species to be extremely successful in invasions of European rivers. Furthermore, C. curvispinum produces overwintering populations of smaller individuals (van den Brink et al. 1993) in waters of the Ponto-Caspian basin with very similar climatic conditions to those of the Great Lakes. However, its physiological tolerance (see Ecology) is restricted by other factors, such as ion concentrations, oxygen availability, chlorophyll a concentrations, flow rate, and organic pollution levels (van der Velde et al. 2000). Individuals’ ability to retain and replace Na+ and Cl- varies among populations in different locations, and some populations have adapted to freshwater by means of lower ion permeability (Harris 1991; van der Velde et al. 2000). The changing conditions of the Rhine River throughout the 20th century, specifically increases in temperature and salinity, have created more suitable conditions for the invasion of foreign species originating in brackish waters, including C. curvispinum (den Hartog et al. 1992; van den Brink et al. 1993). These conditions are consistent with the physical changes forecast for the Great Lakes as a result of climate change (Rahel and Olden 2008), suggesting that this species may benefit from the resulting habitat shifts if introduced.
Chlorophyll a concentrations required by this species are currently present only in Lake Erie’s central basin, with less than 3 µg/L typically occurring in the other lake basins (U.S. EPA 2012). This is consistent with the predicted distribution of C. curvispinum in the Great Lakes according to the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) model, which incorporates variable chlorophyll a levels (U.S. EPA 2008). However, anoxic conditions have recently been present in the central basin of Lake Erie, dropping below 0.5 mg/L at certain times of year (U.S. EPA 2012). As a result, C. curvispinum distribution is likely to be restricted to areas with sufficient flow rates, high dissolved oxygen levels, and high phytoplankton productivity.